We were particularly encouraged by the association between real-time, trial-by-trial estimates of each biomarker and performance (lapses) on specific trials (
Fig. 5). Thus, although a measure of overall reliability can be helpful for flagging poor-quality assessments post hoc, being able to monitor task compliance in real time could be even more useful as a way of proactively reducing measurement error, “at source”. One straightforward way to do this might be to use anomalous biomarker estimates to trigger automated feedback, encouraging the patient to keep going and remain vigilant. Another complementary option would be to factor the estimated reliability of each data point (i.e., each button-press response, or absence thereof) into the underlying psychophysical algorithm. To see how this might be achieved, note that most modern perimeters already use probabilistic (maximum likelihood) algorithms to estimate sensitivity.
15 These work, fundamentally, by computing the the likelihood of each possible sensitivity value (i.e., each possible psychometric function), given the observed sequence of responses. This in turn is proportional to the likelihood of having observed a particular pattern of responses, given each possible sensitivity value:
\begin{equation}p\left( {{{\bf r}}|\left\{ {{{\bf x}},\psi } \right\}} \right) = \prod\limits_{i = 1}^n {p\left( {{{{\bf r}}_i}|\left\{ {{{{\bf x}}_i},\psi } \right\}} \right)} \end{equation}
where
\({\bf x}_i\) is the stimulus level on trial
\(i, {\bf r}_i\) is the participant's response,
n is the total number of trials, and
\(\psi\) is the set of all possible psychometric functions. As we have described previously elsewhere,
41 trial-by-trial information regarding compliance can be integrated into
Equation 9a simply by modifying the likelihood function, such that the participant's response on each trial is weighted by the estimated reliability of that response:
\begin{equation}{p^\alpha }\left( {{{\bf r}}|\left\{ {{{\bf x}},\psi } \right\}} \right) = \prod\limits_{i = 1}^n {\left[ {p{{\left( {{{{\bf r}}_i}|\left\{ {{{{\bf x}}_i}, \psi } \right\}} \right)}^{\alpha \left( {{\theta _i}} \right)}}} \right]} \end{equation}
were α(θ
i) is the estimated compliance on trial
i, transformed to be a value between 0 and 1. When α(θ
i) = 0 (estimated complete non-compliance), that trial is given zero weight—the response is effectively ignored and the likelihood function remains unchanged. When α(θ
i) = 1 (estimated perfect compliance), the trial information is integrated into the likelihood function exactly as per usual. At intermediate values of α(θ
i), trials are given partial credit. This weighting approach has been suggested in other domains as a way of adjusting for anomalous statistical data
42 and has been shown to provide a consistent and efficient likelihood estimate while preserving the same first-order asymptotic properties of a genuine likelihood function. Our expectation is that such a probabilistic weighting approach would yield more reliable likelihood estimates than current methods, which naïvely assume that every response from every participant is equally informative.