This large nationwide cohort study included more than 6600 patients with RAO and found RAO to be associated with an increased risk of stroke, MI, or death, with the risk for stroke being most prominent. The increased risk was markedly higher right after RAO but persisted after 1 year.
Generally, the results showed no consistent protective effect of any of the antithrombotic treatments, but after 1 year aspirin and clopidogrel treatment might be associated with a small decrease in risk. To some extent, anticoagulant treatment was associated with a decreased risk of the outcomes, but, because the subgroup analyses did not confirm this result, the protective effect is most likely only true for a small group of patients with RAO with known cardiovascular diseases such as atrial fibrillation and hence cannot be generalized.
About half of the patients did not receive antithrombotic treatment prior to their RAO. Only about half of these treatment-naive patients with RAO started antithrombotic treatment in the first 90 days after their RAO, with an increasing tendency in the more recent years.
The increased and time-correlated risk of stroke found in the present study is in line with the large majority of existing studies.
4,19,20 A recent review and meta-analysis based on magnetic resonance imaging scans of mainly neurological asymptomatic patients with RAO found that as many as 30% of patients with RAO and 25% of patients with RAO had acute cerebral ischemia in the first 7 days after RAO.
21 Similar results were found in another recent paper.
22 However, as RAO is a rather rare disease, previous studies are comprised mainly of smaller cohort studies and only a few larger, register-based studies in Asian populations. Thus, a 2012 Taiwan register-based cohort study by Chang et al.
23 found the incidence of stroke in patients with RAO to be almost 10 times higher compared with matched controls in the first month after the event. However, these findings were not adjusted for confounders such as diabetes. Similarly, a Korean population-based study from 2015 by Park et al.
11 found the incidence RR of stroke to be 21.50 for patients with RAO the first 30 days after the event compared with control periods in the same patients before and/or after the time around the event. Another Korean study found that the 10-year incidence of stroke was increased for patients with RAO, but unfortunately the analysis was not stratified in time intervals after.
12 As these studies were all carried out in Asian populations, there is a limitation in their generalizability to other ethnic groups. Another population-based study included the US Medicare population and used patients with hip fractures as the control group. They found that the incidence RR of stroke was increased only the first 2 weeks after RAO. Unfortunately, their results were not adjusted for any comorbidities.
24 Our study adds to the existing knowledge as it includes a European population. Furthermore, stratification into three time intervals showed that the risk was excessive even after the first 7 days and persisted for more than a year. Hence, although the prompt initiation of preventive treatment is important, treatment is still relevant even after a substantial delay.
In contrast to most other studies, a small study by Leisser and Findl
25 including 30 patients only found the risk of stroke to be increased in patients with previous stroke, transient ischemic attack, and/or amaurosis fugax. Likewise, a recent study by Laczynski et al.
26 did not find an increased risk of stroke among patients with RAO. Based on findings from their own registries they question the findings from large register-based studies in general. The authors highlighted (1) the accuracy of stroke diagnoses in registries in general, as they found only a minority of the stroke diagnoses to be correct in their own registry; and (2) the possibility that a concurrent stroke at the time of RAO diagnosis could be misinterpreted with regard to the timing of the two events. Although we do recognize the importance of validation of registries and the possible limitations of registries in general, the extrapolation of characteristics of one registry to others seems rather unjustified. In the Danish National Registry of Patients, the registration of MI and acute stroke has been validated and found to have positive predictive values of 97% and 79% to 93.5%, respectively.
27,28 Moreover, in this study patients with RAO were only assigned as such 3 days after the RAO to ensure that any registered stroke occurred after the RAO.
Compared to stroke, the risks of MI and death among patients with RAO have received much less attention.
29 A study on coronary computed tomography angiography in patients with RAO and controls with no cardiac symptoms found a higher prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease among patients with RAO.
30 Indeed, a register-based Taiwan study from 2015 found a hazard ratio of 1.72 for developing acute coronary symptoms in patients with RAO compared with controls, but it was not further analyzed in terms of time since the RAO.
31 In this regard, the study by Park et al.
11 did not find the relative risk of MI to be increased around the time of the RAO compared with the general risk in these same patients.
11 In contrast, this present study found the risk of MI to be correlated to time since RAO, although the effect was markedly lower compared with stroke, as would be expected. In contrast to stroke, MI and RAO are not caused by the same embolic source. Instead, the correlation is more likely a result of common systemic diseases such as atherosclerosis.
As the risks of MI, stroke, or death are highest immediately following RAO, a protective effect of antiplatelets could provide the greatest benefit during this period. However, our study did not find any protective effect the first year after RAO. The effect of aspirin on the risk of stroke the first year after RAO was also investigated in a recent register-based cohort study from Taiwan.
15 They found a high risk of stroke immediately after the RAO but were unable to find any preventive effect of aspirin. Their study included only 15 stroke events the first 90 days in the aspirin group (37 in the non-treatment group), whereas this study included 96 and 51 events, respectively. In contrast to our study, the Taiwan study defined treatment solely based on the prescription of aspirin on the event day, leading to less than 13% of the patients with RAO being defined as the treatment group for 1 year as opposed to our cohort, in which around half of the treatment-naive patients with RAO started treatment within 90 days. In our cohort, there was a delay from RAO to the initiation of treatment in the vast majority of patients starting treatment in the first 90 days. In fact, fewer than one-third of these treatments were initiated the first few days. By applying a time-dependent approach, a very precise definition of the treatment group was carried out.
Despite these differences, both studies have come to the same conclusion of no effect the first year, and to our knowledge there are no other similar studies.
In contrast, a meta-analysis including 195 randomized controlled trials found that treatment with aspirin or another antiplatelet agents reduced the risk of MI, stroke, or vascular deaths among high-risk patients in general.
32 As with other similar studies, the effects for patients with RAO specifically were not evaluated. The report did state, however, that, “… the protective effects of antiplatelet therapy should be expected to apply to an even wider range of high risk patients than those categories for which the present meta-analysis provides direct evidence of benefit.”
32 Even if the effect of antiplatelet treatment is smaller in other patients, such as patients with RAO, the hazards of antiplatelet treatment are still considered to be outweighed by their effect.
32
Because large-artery atherosclerosis, most often in the form of stenoses or plaques in the carotid arteries, is the most frequent cause of RAO and these patients may have a higher risk of subsequent thromboembolic events compared with other patients with RAO,
7,33 evidence concerning patients with carotid atherosclerosis should be relevant to patients with RAO. The Clinical Practice Guidelines of the European Society for Vascular Surgery from 2017 recommend antiplatelet treatment in symptomatic patients with a 50% to 99% stenosis even if not undergoing surgery.
18 However, these recommendations are also largely based on extrapolation from general stroke populations. To our knowledge, the presumed effect of antiplatelets as secondary prevention in patients with RAO has not been investigated specifically.
The reasons for the discrepancies between these studies and our study on patients with RAO remain uncertain. One possible explanation is that the emboli causing RAO and a subsequent stroke are of a type and composition different from those causing classic strokes. This argument is raised by some authors to explain why thrombolytics does not work in the acute management of RAO, as it has been shown that the majority of retinal emboli are made of cholesterol or calcified material.
3 This would explain why our results suggest that there might be a protective effect after 1 year, as these events due to the lack of timely correlation are less likely to result from the exact same source of emboli but rather from general atherosclerosis. However, these findings were not confirmed in the subgroup analysis with respect to stroke and MI.
If instead the emboli causing subsequent stroke resembles those produced in atrial fibrillation, then one should expect anticoagulants to be more effective than antiplatelet treatment, which was indeed the case in the main analysis in our study. As discussed, the subgroup analyses did not confirm this result, but we cannot exclude that it is affected by confounding by indication.